Key Bitcoin price metric flashes its first bullish signal in 4 months

Bitcoin (BTC) has been struggling to stay above $53,000 support for the past three days, while Ether (ETH) skyrocketed to a new all-time high at $2,800. In the current scenario, some traders would prefer to wait for the expiration of Friday’s CME futures before entering long BTC positions, as historically, their price tends to be corrected before the event.

Ether and Bitcoin prices in Coinbase, USD. Source: TradingView
On the other hand, the price of Ether has been positively affected by the launch of a sale of “digital Bonds” by the European Investment Bank using the Ethereum network. The EIB is issuing a two-year digital bond of EUR 100 million (USD 120.8 million), the agreement of which will be led by Goldman Sachs, Santander and Societe Generale.

Also, last week, JP Morgan released a research note stating that Ether should continue to outperform Bitcoin due to liquidity improvements and increased activity on the network.

According to fixed income analyst Joshua Younger:

“Bitcoin is more a cryptocurrency than a currency and competes with gold as a store of value, while Ether is the backbone of the crypto-native economy and therefore functions more as a medium of exchange. To the extent that owning a part of this potential activity is more valuable.”

When analyzing the relationship between the net long-to-short ratio of users in OKEx, surprising data emerges. The indicator is calculated using clients ‘ consolidated positions, including Perpetual and futures contracts. Ether long’s ratio to shorts reached the lowest level in 2021, becoming significantly lower than Bitcoin’s.

Ether longs dominated widely throughout 2021, peaking at 130% more than shorts, while Bitcoin traders have generally been more modest. However, the reversal of the market trend of April 29 comes as the ratio for BTC longs is 45% higher than shorts.

Meanwhile, Ether traders are only 6% net long, indicating a lack of confidence in the recent rebound.

The position of OKEx traders on Ether as bearish should not be interpreted, considering that the long-to-short ratio is relatively flat. However, the April monthly trend leaves no doubt that Bitcoin traders are becoming more optimistic.

Traders should not rule out the expiration of Friday’S BTC and Ether options. Bitcoin’s $3.9 billion expiration presents a danger to bulls if the price happens to move below $50,000, considering that bearish-neutral put options would have a 7.7 billion advantage.

Currently, bulls dominate the maturity of the more modest Ether options 930 million Ether, and the difference of 1 115 million in the open interest of the call options seems guaranteed even if the price of Ether falls to 2 2,600.

However, both cryptocurrencies could experience volatility after Friday’s options expire at 8:00 AM UTC and the following CME futures and options expire at 3: 00 PM UTC.

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